- Military news Analysis - -
Sydney,with inputs from correspondents at Tehran, London, Beirut, and Cairo:
The Muezzin's Azan (Muslim call to prayer) is being responded to by an increasing number of young Muslims today and the exhortation during the Namaz is to defeat the Great Satan.
The Tapes received at various Islamic organizations yesterday calling all Muslims to wage a Jihad against the USA is not new. What is new is that this is done against the background of the Taliban's claim that it will recruit three hundred thousand Mujahids to fight the Jihad against the USA. Considering that there are over one billion Muslims across the globe, Osama's call will be heeded by many more than the three hundred thousand which the Taliban claim to call. This is a safe bet, considering the street protests and the Bazar talk across the Muslim world today centers around how to fight the Jihad against the West.
We have first hand reports that the Muezzin's Azan (Muslim call to prayer) is being responded to by an increasing number of young Muslims and the exhortation during the namaz is to defeat the Great Satan - USA.
What would happen when the American action begins to unfold?
Once the American action begins to unfold, we can safely predict that the full force of Muslim fury against the USA will spill over to the streets across the entire Muslims world. Moderate and pro-US Muslim leaders are awaiting this day with dread. The Arab League's statement that an attack on any one Arab state would be seen as an attack on the entire Arab world and on Islam speaks what is on the mind of the Muslim leaders today. They are all sitting on a volcano about to burst. And they are praying hard to prevent the outpouring of lava to sweep them into the trashcan of history.
The Saudi diffidence over the use of the prince Sultan Airbase by the Americans and Allies originates from the dread of a wild reaction of the Saudi masses to such a move. We foresee not just the overthrow of President Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan, but even the regimes in Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan. Even Syria Iran, Algeria and Libya could face turmoil. In the next few months, if not weeks, we are going to see cataclysmic changes in the Political leadership of the Muslim world.
Islam and terrorism, are the two sides of a two faced Janus
No doubt nobody across the Muslim world believes President Bush's oft repeated statement that the war is against terrorism and not against Islam. Mr. President Sir, when Islam itself is terrorism, how can you fight one and not fight the other. They are both the two sides of a two faced Janus (the two faced Roman god). The man on the street in the USA does not believe President Bush. Had the lay Americans believed their President, there would not have been any backlash against the Arab-Americans.
Can the War on Terror do the job?
One positive development is the advance of war on terror and the remote and theoretical possibility of the liberation of the Muslim world from the clutches of Islam. But in the course of this war, in our view, the lay Muslim population will opt for (or be forced by the Jihadis) to fight to death. And the effect of a victory of the Western Alliance is not going to be seen with favor by the masses in the Islamic world (as we can see in Iraq today). Most Muslims would consider the Western Alliance along with the leaders of Muslim countries that help the Americans to be the enemies of Islam. And then anti-American and anti-West (frankly anti-Christian) acts of terror would be witnessed across the globe. No Western (and non-Muslim) embassy, residences of Westerners (Riyadh), Restaurants frequented by Westerners (Casablanca), Night clubs popular with Westerners (Bali), and anything associated with the West (the UN compound at Baghdad, Israeli passenger aircrafts at Mombasa, German-Jewish tourists at Tunisia, etc) are ever going to be safe henceforth.
Most interesting are the developments unfolding in Pakistan Today
Most interesting are the developments unfolding today in Pakistan which has once again become a frontline state as far as the war against terrorism is concerned. And if the Mujahids in Pakistan who are calling for an overthrow of Pervez Musharraf and are baying for American blood gain the upper hand in Pakistan, even then Pakistan will continue to be frontline state in the war against terrorism is concerned - but on the opposite side. The only difference then would be that both its government and people on the street would be with the terrorists, unlike now when the Govt has pledged formal support for the USA while the man on the street is baying for American blood.
Why have there not been any pro-government demonstrations in Pakistan?
We wonder why there have not been any pro-government demonstrations in Pakistan, considering that the Muslim psyche is such that can hardly repress its emotions. If the people of Pakistan support the fight against global terrorism, they should have been on the streets baying for the terrorists blood. But this has not happened. And you can take our word on this that it will never happen in Pakistan. If it happens, the pro-American street demonstrations will happen in India, as they have already started happening.
The people in the two countries are getting polarized on opposite sides, with the majority of Indians (Hindus and Christians) supporting the USA, while the Muslims make an obvious choice. While this polarization would present the two countries with civil unrest, the actual crisis would occur in the likely eventuality of the overthrow of President Pervez Musharraf, and his replacement with a Jihadi Pakistani General as the leader of Pakistan.
What happens after the eventual overthrow of President Pervez Musharraf, and his replacement with a Jihadi Pakistani General as the leader of Pakistan?
After this eventuality, that is bound to happen sooner or later, Pakistan would then have switched sides and would be whole-heartedly with the terrorists. With India becoming a frontline state, a Nuclear fallout would be a logical outcome between the two neighbors who have little love between them. India and Pakistan have been a nuclear flash-point ever since the Pokhran and Chagai tests. And this possibility would become dangerously REAL after the replacement of President Pervez Musharraf by a Jihadi Pakistani General.
A Nuclear showdown between India and Pakistan would not remain a local affair
A Nuclear showdown between India and Pakistan would not remain a local affair, it would, in fact, mark the beginning of the nuclear phase of the war against global terrorism, since the Pakistan who have already proliferated their nuclear technology to other radical Islamic nations like Saudi Arabia. There is much about this dangerous development that the Western countries know, but have not made public to avoid global panic in already catastrophic situation.
Can the West, Pre-empt the Enemies of Human Civilization from being the First in Launching the Nuclear Phase of the Coming War?
There is not much that can be done to avoid this eventuality, except to pre-empt the enemies of human civilization from being the first in launching the nuclear phase of the coming war. If the West cannot use nuclear weapons itself, then it can at least clandestinely destroy the nuclear facilities in the enemy camp. This is the least they can do today.
Without wanting to sound alarmist, we can state here that the coming war is going to be one with no holds barred. When the sensible nations know their enemy, they would have themselves to blame if they do not pre-empt their enemies by whatever means and at whatever cost, today. A cost that is going to seem prohibitive today but which would avoid the exponentially high cost that the world would have to pay once the Godzillas start their carnage using nuclear weapons - a trailer of which they gave on the 11th of September at Manhattan.
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