Military news Analysis - Why Pakistan faces a Civil War Situation

- News Analysis -



By helping the USA in attacking Afghanistan; Pakistan today faces a near definite possibility of a break-up after a relentless civil war between the Kemalist sections of the Pakistani Army led by General-President Pervez Musharraf against the Jehadi factions led by the 2nd rung generals like Director General ISPR Major General Rashid Querishi, and the beard-sporting fundamentalist Generals like Mohammaed Usmani and Mohammed Aziz (who installed General Musharraf as President in absentia, after toppling the ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif). So far three Pakistani generals have been publicly accused of having links with the Al Qaeda. This is just the tip of the iceberg. More disturbing is the fact that the father of Pakistan's Atom Bomb was sent into forced retirement due to his sympathies for the Taliban. Some members of Pakistan's nuclear establishment and the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence), Pakistan's secret service, have maintained clandestine links with the Al Qaeda. This is an untold story of the ISI-Pakistan Military-AlQaeda nexus.

The Jihadi Army Generals in the Pakistani Military

These Jihadi Army Generals and their significant supporters in the Pakistani Army will find support from the private rogue armies like the Lashkar-e-Toiba, Harkat-ul-Mujahedeen, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jaish-e-Mohammedi and other Jehadi outfits.

Possibility of a Civil War and a break-up of Pakistan has been predicted by the RAND Corporation

This possibility of a Break-up of Pakistan has been predicted by the RAND Corporation in a recent study that presents various futuristic scenarios. But what seemed unbelievable at that time seems quite possible since the US asked Pakistan to prove its offer of help to the Americans to fight Terrorism. With US wanting to have insulated military bases in Pakistan, the fat would be in the fire for the Jihadi groups who have already started crying blue murder, going by the statement of the Lashkar-e-toiba, condemning Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's offer to help the Americans fight the terrorists.

Pakistani Jihadis share an umbilical cord with the Taliban

Needless to add here that President Musharraf has earned the ire of the Pakistani Jihadis since they share an umbilical cord with the Taliban. The cassette showing Osama Bin Laden advocating a Jihad against America is widely studied in Pakistan and other parts of the volatile Islamic world. And an entire generation of Islamic Jihadis is been brought up idolizing Laden. This adds fuel to the already fanatical nature of Islamic society.

The Pivotal Role of Pakistan

Pakistan's role in either supporting or opposing the Taliban is pivotal. The Taliban is Pakistan's baby which they fathered to fight the assorted Mujaheedeen groups that fought in Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew from there. Thus Taliban is a child of the Pakistanis. And for the Taliban, a continuation of Pakistani solidarity is a lifeline. The Taliban cannot exist without this Pakistani lifeline. This is especially since the Taliban has hostile neighbours on all sides, except on its south where lies Pakistan. The Shia Iranian to their west hate the Sunni Taliban, the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kazaks and Turkmens to the North of the Taliban have an anathema for the spread of Talibanist ideology into their ex-communist society; the Chinese have a silent but decisive hatred of Islamic fanaticism and they execute all Muslim terrorists without fanfare in Xinjiang; the Indians have no love for the Taliban. So this leaves only Pakistan which is the sole lifeline for the Taliban. And now the Americans have asked the Pakistani Govt to help them destroy the Taliban!

Implications of the Pakistani offer of help to the Americans

The Pakistani offer of help to the American after the blowing up of the WTC and Pentagon has proved to be millstone around the neck of the Pakistanis. If they help the Americans, they face a civil war within their own country. And if they don't they face American ire and also the possibility of an American attack sometime in future, if not immediately.

Today the Pakistanis themselves are divided between the Kemalist and Jihad camps.

Much depends on what General Musharraf's outlook at heart really is?

If President Pervez Musharraf really has the Kemalist outlook that he professes to have then he is essence anti-Islamic. Because Kemalism vaporizes Islam as it has done in Turkey. Musharraf who has had his schooling and upbringing in Turkey (where his father worked as a Pakistani Diplomat) has evidently shown his Kemalist leanings in his occasional outbursts against the Jihadis. But his problem is that he has to rub shoulders with fellow officers of the Pakistani military those who are temperamentally Jihadis. This apart from many other rogue private armies like the Lashkar-e-Toiba, Harkat-ul-Mujahedeen, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jaish-e-Mohammedi ad nausem.

If President Musharraf helps the Americans he faces a prospect of civil war

If President Musharraf helps the Americans he faces a prospect of civil war within Pakistan. A war which he can win only with American help. If he seeks that help, the Americans would be more than willing to give him that and help in smashing the den of Islamic Jihad which Pakistan has become. The outcome could also be a break-up of Pakistan, which the Americans may do, a la Germany after the Second World War. This would be done to emasculate Pakistan and prevent it from becoming the womb of Islamic Terrorism once again in future.

But if General Musharraf does this, he would lose his standing as a Muslim leader and become a sworn enemy of the Jihadis.

If he does not help the Americans, he is exposed as one who has sneaking sympathies for the Jihadis

On the other hand if he does not help the Americans, as he has promised to do, then he is exposed in the eyes of the world as one who has sneaking sympathies for the Jihadis.

How will Musharraf answer this tough existential dilemma?

So today General-President Pervez Musharraf faces a tough existential dilemma today. The million dollar question is, how will Musharraf answer this tough existential dilemma? The future of Pakistan, the shape of its survival and the course of the global war against terrorism depends on what today General-President Pervez Musharraf decides today!

We from the team, wish him good sense and good luck.

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- The team



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